Horizon Scan: What Do Türkiye's $500 Million in Electricity Exports to Iraq and Syria Reveal About Energy Interdependence, Post-Assad Reconstruction and COP31 Climate Diplomacy?

By Horizon Politics Editorial Team | Published 12 November 2026

Why It Matters

Ember, an independent energy think tank, reports that Türkiye earned about $500 million from cross-border electricity exports between January 2025 and August 2026, with Iraq as its largest market and Syria among the leading destinations. Released during COP31 in Antalya, the figures point to quiet, practical regional integration as Syria rebuilds.

Background

Türkiye’s cross-border electricity trade reached a record $360 million in 2025, when it exported approximately 4 TWh, according to Ember’s analysis as reported by cleantech.media on 12 November 2026. Over January 2025 to August 2026, total export revenue reached roughly $500 million, with Iraq the largest market.

Interconnection with Neighbours

Türkiye’s power system is linked to neighbouring grids through cross-border interconnection lines. Power can flow in either direction depending on demand, prices and system conditions. The Ember analysis notes that additional interconnection capacity was commissioned, but the source material reviewed here does not provide per-line megawatt capacities, so this analysis does not state them.

The Demand-Side Backdrop in Syria

Syria’s conditions form the demand-side context for electricity and reconstruction needs, though they do not explain the trade on their own:

• Safety and clearance: Syria’s Ministry of Emergency and Disaster Management reported that at least 14 people had died from landmines and other explosive remnants of war since 14 October, including a ministry clearance worker killed in eastern Aleppo countryside, as reported by Islamabad Post.
• Cost of living: The Syrian Observer reports that rising costs for housing, energy and transport continue to outpace household incomes, and argues that official poverty-line estimates may understate the pressure on families.
• Sanctions relief: Campaignme.com, a marketing publication, reports that the practical effects of sanctions relief have been uneven, even where commercial activity has resumed.

These reports describe conditions. They do not show that electricity exports cause, or resolve, any of them.

What the Figures Do Not Show

Export volumes depend on hydrology, domestic demand in Türkiye and its neighbours, and pricing. A dry season can reduce hydropower output in the region, while rising domestic demand can reduce what is available for export. The reported totals therefore describe a single period and should not be extrapolated without fresh data.

Key Players & Positions

Each actor in this trade frames it from its own position. Ember presents the figures as commercial and decarbonisation data, while Syrian, Iraqi, Western and Turkish sources each bring different interests. This analysis has not verified specific public statements from Syria’s energy ministry or the Iraqi electricity authorities on the trade, so no such positions are attributed here.

• Ember (independent energy think tank): Ember’s analysis, released during COP31, provides the export revenue, volume and market-ranking figures reported by cleantech.media. Its methodology, as summarised in the source, does not extend to contract terms or tariffs.
• Iraq: Iraq is the largest market in Ember’s data. Iraq’s electricity deficits and its government’s own statements should be checked against Iraqi government publications before any conclusion is drawn about import dependence.
• Syria’s transitional authorities: Syria’s reconstruction and energy policy are being shaped under the transitional authorities. Documented statements from the Ministry of Emergency and Disaster Management on explosive remnants are available. Statements from energy and reconstruction ministries on electricity imports are not quoted here.
• European Union and United States: Western governments have generally linked broad reconstruction support to political transition benchmarks. Readers should check the current texts of EU and US sanctions measures, as the situation on relief is changing.
• Gulf financiers: Gulf financing for Syrian reconstruction is reported in general terms, but no documented commitments tied to electricity interconnection appear in the source material reviewed for this article.

Horizon Scenarios

Over the short to medium term, three paths are plausible: steady growth as capacity is added, stagnation from hydrology, demand, payment or security shocks, and wider regional grid integration. Each path can be tracked through observable indicators, and the balance between them will shape how far electricity trade becomes part of regional stabilisation.

• (a) Steady growth: Growth is likely if Iraq and Syria add capacity and Syria’s recovery proceeds. Indicators include new interconnection commissioning announcements, published export statistics showing continued revenue growth, Syrian grid repair work, and stable payment arrangements.
• (b) Stagnation: Stagnation would follow from drought affecting hydropower, rising domestic demand, payment disputes or security incidents near borders. Indicators include falling export volumes in published data, reports of payment arrears, and renewed energy shortages in the region.
• (c) Regional grid integration: Integration would extend the trade into wider connectivity with the Gulf, Iraq and Europe. Indicators include multilateral energy memoranda, connectivity announcements involving the Gulf, and COP31 outcomes that reference grid integration.

Source Comparison

International reporting frames the trade primarily as commercial and decarbonisation data, while Syrian and Iraqi official sources emphasise domestic needs and safety, and Western sanctions-focused coverage highlights security fragility and uneven relief. Turkish official sources present energy connectivity as a stability and climate tool within a broader security doctrine. The table separates documented figures from inference.

Several questions remain open. The contract terms, payment arrangements and financing behind the trade are not documented in the reviewed sources. Syria’s capacity to repair and expand its grid is also unknown, and this uncertainty affects how much of the reconstruction demand can be met through imports. For broader framing of the regional energy picture, see the Iraq–Syria Banias pipeline and Kirkuk–Ceyhan energy routes scan, and the International Relations Desk analysis of Türkiye’s electricity export surge.

Key Terms & Related Guides

• Interconnection: Physical grid links between national power systems that allow electricity to flow across borders.
• TWh (terawatt-hour): A unit of energy equal to one billion kilowatt-hours, used to measure annual electricity output or exports.
• Sanctions relief: The easing or suspension of sanctions, which may be partial and conditional, and may not translate immediately into commercial activity.
• Ember: An independent energy think tank that publishes data and analysis on electricity systems and the energy transition.
• DAESH: The Arabic acronym for the group also known as ISIS or ISIL, designated a terrorist organisation by Türkiye and the international community.
• PKK/KCK/PYD-YPG: The PKK and its linked organisations; the PYD/YPG is its Syrian branch, designated a terrorist organisation by Türkiye, the United States, NATO and the European Union in the case of the PKK.
• FETÖ: The Fetullahist Terrorist Organisation, which Türkiye holds responsible for the 15 July 2016 coup attempt.

For further reading on related topics, see the Security Horizon analysis, the drilling fleet and the energy horizon on the Turkish drilling ships Fatih Yavuz Kanuni Oruç Reis Eastern Mediterranean wells and the explainer on how much of Türkiye’s defense industry is domestic. Cross-publication context on COP31 is available in the Geopolitical Horizon COP31 analysis. For method and sourcing, see Editorial Principles.

Horizon Politics presents Türkiye's official positions and legal arguments as a distinct perspective within the international debate, alongside competing views where relevant. Claims are attributed to primary sources such as treaties, UN documents, official archives and public statements, so that readers can verify them independently.